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By the numbers: Struggling Suzuki should benefit from new linemates

Adding Brendan Gallagher's net-crashing and defensive acumen along with Mike Hoffman's shot should help Suzuki's line finish more plays.

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Coming into the 2021-22 NHL season, it was always going to be an uphill battle for the Canadiens.

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Losing Shea Weber and Phillip Danault during the off-season was a catastrophic blow defensively. Losing Tomas Tatar — whatever you might think of his playoff performance — is a huge blow offensively, while losing Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Corey Perry cut down the forward depth.

Starting the season without Carey Price and Paul Byron on top of losing Weber more than halved the leadership core of the team, and we haven’t even talked about Joel Edmundson missing time to be with his ailing father. Even with the additions of David Savard, Christian Dvorak and others, along with the return of Jonathan Drouin, this team is much different than the edition we saw last season, and unlikely to be as strong or cohesive.

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Before breaking the season-opening skid with a feel-good blowout win Saturday over the Detroit Red Wings, the first five games of the season for the Canadiens were abysmal — in terms of results, the process and gallingly poor execution.

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The ability to find the net and respond after going down a goal against the Red Wings should provide glimpse of the other side for the locker room, but don’t be surprised if it takes this team significantly longer to find its sea legs and resemble even a middling team.

With the start they’ve had, it’s already a long climb to get back into playoff contention unless they immediately go on a run, and that’s probably unlikely unless the Canadiens’ top line gets going.

In the long term, there’s nothing to worry about with Nick Suzuki but, in the short term, it’s become very clear that he has some “I just got a giant contract” jitters.

Defensively, Suzuki is the same player he’s always been. He’s playing top-line minutes and teams aren’t generating much against him in terms of chances. Offensively, however, things don’t look good.

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To illustrate how little offence is being generated while Suzuki’s line is on the ice, let’s look at high-danger chances. Pro-rated to every 60 minutes of 5-vs-5 ice time, Suzuki’s line is generating 3.14 high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. In that same time frame, Christian Dvorak’s line is producing 11.84 high-danger chances as the Canadiens’ best offensive line, while even Jake Evans, who is also floundering overall, is seeing his line generate 8.04 high-danger chances per 60 minutes.

Because Suzuki’s offensive impact is so low this season, he’s actually posting the worst differentials of any centre on the team, with the Canadiens’ top line being caved in by all important scoring metrics to the tune of sub-40 per cent control of play.

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Sacrificing offence for defence at even strength isn’t a new thing for Suzuki. Coming into this season, Suzuki was in the 96th percentile in defensive impact among forwards at 5-vs-5, but just the 40th percentile offensively according to Top Down Hockey. I think we all know simply from watching Suzuki’s skills game in and game out that he’s capable of being far more than an above average even-strength offensive weapon, but he has focused extremely hard on defence to start his career.

That focus and execution remains on the defensive side of the puck, and his commitment to it has earned him the unflinching trust of his coaching staff, and a big contract.

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This season though, there’s nervousness and hesitation in his game that hasn’t been present at any other point. Suzuki still looks relatively comfortable on the power play, but at even strength he’s cutting to the outside to beat defenders instead of to the inside and when he gets a prime shooting opportunity, he has looked more surprised than anything.

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Putting Brendan Gallagher on Suzuki’s wing during the last couple of games is a good call by head coach Dominique Ducharme and his staff. First, Gallagher was a little wasted on the third line with Evans, who doesn’t really fit Gallagher’s playing style but, most importantly, Gallagher is an incredible driver of high-danger scoring chances.

While long-term the plan is likely still to unite Cole Caufield and Suzuki, for now Suzuki should greatly benefit by the added net-crashing pressure and defensive acumen that Gallagher brings to the table. Caufield is more dynamic, but he is off to a slow start this season.

Adding Gallagher as a two-way force also allows the Canadiens to put Mike Hoffman — who can score from anywhere, but is a bit of a defensive liability — on that line. Between Suzuki and Gallagher, Hoffman is well insulated and should help the line finish plays that would normally be easy stops for a goaltender.

This setup should work well to help Suzuki regain his confidence, but the team is going to struggle overall until he gets there. You won’t find many successful teams on which the first line is getting vastly outplayed every night.

Andrew Berkshire is a Montreal-based hockey writer specializing in data-driven analysis of the game.

andrewberkshire@hotmail.com

twitter.com/andrewberkshire

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