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Canada has triple the number of cases of the COVID-19 variant P.1 than the U.S.

Here's everything you need to know about the worrisome P.1 variant first identified in Brazil

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Canada is experiencing a spike in P.1 variant cases, with 1,000 identified as of April 6 — almost triple the 356 cases reported in the United States. 

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That’s despite the fact that the U.S. has more than 328.2 million people, while Canada’s population is just about 37.5 million people. Canada now has 26 cases of the P.1 variant per million people while there is just one per million in the U.S.

It’s part of a worrisome trend that could see Canada surpass the U.S. in terms of the total number of daily COVID-19 cases relative to its population, with COVID-19 variants and a slow vaccine rollout playing a big role. The U.S. is adding roughly 196 COVID-19 cases per one million people daily, and Canada, as of April 6, was adding 180 cases per one million people daily. Canada could overtake the U.S. in the next few days, experts told the National Post.

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From Ontario and Quebec to British Columbia and Alberta, fear of variants is growing, especially since they tend to be more easily transmissible and can hit younger, healthier people much harder than the original coronavirus.

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There are now more than 15,000 confirmed cases of variants in Canada, up from 9,000 on March 30. Cases of the P.1 variant in Canada are far outnumbered by the 14,790 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the U.K. But P.1 is charging ahead quickly, particularly in British Columbia, and it’s causing concern.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s top doctor, said chief public health officers from federal and provincial governments met over the weekend to discuss the P.1 spread, and are working to double efforts to manage known P.1 cases. With the variants exploding, there is still a need to limit interactions and to wear masks, she said.

Here’s everything you need to know about the P.1 variant first identified in Brazil.

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Where is it circulating?

As of Tuesday, Canada had identified 1,000 cases of the P.1 variant. B.C. is far and away leading the country with 877 cases. It is followed by Ontario with 106 cases, Alberta with 15 and Quebec with two. The rest of Canada has so far not identified any cases.

However, provinces may be drastically undercounting variants of concern. While positive cases are now screened for a variant, it then takes several days to identify which one it is. For example, Ontario has confirmed about 2,300 total variant cases, but has more than 27,000 cases screened and awaiting full sequencing. Internal slides from the B.C. Centre for Disease Control, leaked to Postmedia News, show that presumptive variant cases made up at least 40 per cent of all positive COVID-19 cases as of March 27. That’s double the estimate given by provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry on March 25. Neither of those figures take into account the rapid increase in variant cases over the Easter long weekend, when cases of the P.1 variant almost doubled in B.C.

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How did the variant spread from Brazil?

The variant emerged in Brazil in December, where it raced through the country’s seventh most populous city, Manaus. It was first reported outside the country in Japan, having been found there in travellers from Brazil, and it was confirmed to have reached the eastern U.S. in January. Canada reported its first case in February. A Toronto resident who tested positive for the variant was hospitalized after travelling from Brazil. The U.S has only 356 cases so far, compared to Canada’s more than 15,000. The variant has now been detected in more than a dozen countries in the Americas and become a major cause for concern.

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How transmissible is it?

Researchers looking at the spread of the variant in Brazil found the relative transmissibility is about 2.5 times higher than the base infection rate, but other studies have put that figure lower.

A growing number of COVID-19 cases in Canada are variants of concern.
A growing number of COVID-19 cases in Canada are variants of concern. Photo by Postmedia

Why is this variant particularly concerning?

The variant is fuelling Brazil’s deadly outbreak. The country has become the epicentre of the pandemic, contributing about one in four deaths per day globally, according to a Reuters analysis. Its overall death toll trails only the U.S. outbreak, with nearly 337,000 killed, according to Health Ministry data, compared with more than 555,000 dead in the U.S. No one wants to be the next Brazil.

The P.1 variant is especially concerning because it contains a mutation that makes it both highly contagious and more resistant to the antibodies produced from vaccines and previous coronavirus infections. It has the potential to infect people who have been vaccinated and even reinfect people who have had COVID-19.

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Experts in Brazil have warned that young people aren’t only more likely to get infected by P.1, but also more likely to die. Sarah Otto, a professor at the University of B.C.’s department of zoology, told the Vancouver Sun that P.1 causes a 10 to 80 per cent increase in mortality.

Can vaccines stop it?

Some research has suggested the Pfizer vaccine may be effective in neutralizing it, and other research predicts the Moderna vaccine will do the same, according to the National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases.

A recent University of Oxford study used blood samples from people with antibodies generated by both COVID-19 infection and the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines that are being rolled out in Britain. The data showed a nearly three-fold reduction in the level of virus neutralization by antibodies generated by the vaccines for the P.1 variant — similar to the reduction seen with the variant first identified in the U.K. The data suggest that natural- and vaccine-induced antibodies could still neutralize the variant, but at lower levels, and the P.1 strain may be less resistant to antibodies than first feared.

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However, we don’t have enough data yet to say for sure. Tam warned this week that some lab studies suggest vaccines are less effective against the P.1 variant.

How can you avoid catching it?

The same way you can avoid catching any variant: practice physical distancing and hand washing and avoid crowded, poorly ventilated areas. Don’t socialize indoors. Wear a mask, and if you’re sick, stay home to reduce the spread. Follow the latest advice from your provincial health officer. If you have become complacent about public health measures in the past few months, now is the time to redouble your efforts.

“Have the same heightened caution as we did at the beginning of last year when we didn’t know what was going on,” Otto said.

With additional reporting by Reuters and Tyler Dawson, National Post

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.

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